Fantasy baseball: Eric Karabell’s bold predictions for NL teams

Aaron Judge has already hit 62 home runs in a season. Paul Skenes has already delivered a sub-2.00 ERA. Mike Trout has already played 159 games in a season. So, if we were predicting these three players to duplicate these past achievements in 2025, only one of them would be bold. Here we are preparing for another season (finally), and everyone and their mailman is making predictions. In this column, we take risks, go against conventional wisdom. And no, we do not think Trout plays in 159 games this season (sadly).

Some (most) of these predictions will look a bit silly in six months, if not sooner. Still, there is a basis for making each of these bold statements, and perhaps it makes you think. Perhaps the player in question has a particular skill — or opportunity — that defies groupthink. Perhaps the statement is not a positive one. Fantasy baseball managers tend to follow rankings and projections but trusting your gut is important, too. Trust yourself. Take a few chances. Perhaps some of these bold picks will look wise in a few months.

With that in mind, let us go bold yet again, this time for 2025, finishing up with the National League.

Arizona Diamondbacks: We want to believe in SS prospect Jordan Lawlar (still), but he’s not making it easy. Lawlar eventually starts 80 games at 3B, and he steals 24 bases. … C Adrian Del Castillo hits 20 home runs, some while at DH. … Veteran RHP Merrill Kelly bounces back for 31 starts, a career-high 14 wins and a staff-leading 181 strikeouts. … RHP Corbin Burnes fans 171 over 30 starts.

Atlanta Braves: OF Ronald Acuna Jr. (knee) will not lead the team in stolen bases. Michael Harris II will with 22. Be careful investing in Acuna, who debuts in mid-May. … New OF Jurickson Profar, who few believe will duplicate his 2024 season, does even better, and he scores 100 runs. … Not that I don’t trust Cy Young winner LHP Chris Sale, but RHP Spencer Schwellenbach leads the staff with 175 IP and is the draft day value. Sale makes 24 starts.

Chicago Cubs: Hot prospect Matt Shaw earns the 3B job and smacks 22 HR while also stealing 24 bases. … Pending free agent OF Kyle Tucker goes 26/26. Hmmm. … Seven Cubs reach 22 HR — every position except 2B (Nico Hoerner) and catcher, and including young breakout OF Pete Crow-Armstrong (22 HR, 39 SB). … LHP Justin Steele finishes with a 2.75 ERA in 30 starts. … No Cubs reliever saves 20 games. RHP Nate Pearson is closing by August.

Cincinnati Reds: 2B Matt McLain makes a strong run for 30/30, falling just short with 27 HR, and he is the NL Comeback Player of the Year. … Forgotten 1B Christian Encarnacion-Strand is one of the “free agent finds” of the season, hitting 27 HR as well. … RHP Hunter Greene makes 32 starts, whiffing 211 batters. … LHP Nick Lodolo breaks out with a 3.33 ERA and 188 K. … Isn’t it a given that when the Reds win 88 games (but still miss the playoffs), beloved Terry Francona becomes a four-time manager of the year?

Colorado Rockies: It’s bounce-back city for several hitters! OF Nolan Jones returns to 20/20 status. 2B Thairo Estrada reaches 20/20 for the first time. Backup C/OF Hunter Goodman again registers more HR (24) than walks (12). … As for DH Kris Bryant, OK, let’s give him 18 HR in 120 games. … Ignore the pitching, except for rookie RHP Seth Halvorsen, who leads the club with 22 saves.

Los Angeles Dodgers: Well, nobody will like this, but no Dodgers starting pitcher makes more than 25 trips to the mound or reaches 150 IP. Hey, none of them did last season, so it really isn’t so bold. They have depth. … Roki Sasaki posts a 37.5% K rate in his 14 starts, best in the league. … DH/RHP Shohei Ohtani hits a career-high .325, but he steals only 19 bases. He makes 10 pitching starts, one more than LHP Clayton Kershaw. … SS prospect Alex Freeland debuts in May, starts 95 games at 2B and leads the club with 24 stolen bases. … The Dodgers win 96 games, but not the NLCS.

Miami Marlins: SS Xavier Edwards makes good on his goal to steal 60 bases. He leads the NL. … 3B Connor Norby and new 1B Deyvison De Los Santos both hit 25 HR, though both also post a sub-.230 batting average. … RHP Sandy Alcantara and his 2.90 ERA pitch a scoreless second inning in the All-Star game — and 10 days later he is on the Yankees.

Milwaukee Brewers: OFs Christian Yelich and Jackson Chourio both reach 30/30 for the NL Central champs, and they are top-10 fantasy outfielders. … Surprise OF Garrett Mitchell comes close, ending at 24 HR, 28 SB. … 3B Joey Ortiz wins the NL Gold Glove at SS. … 2B/3B Caleb Durbin and 1B Tyler Black both steal 23 bases. … Underrated LHP Nestor Cortes finishes eighth in the NL with a 2.89 ERA. … RHP Trevor Megill saves 34 games.

New York Mets: OF Juan Soto hits .276 with 28 HR and 6 SB. He becomes the team’s regular DH by July and he walks 130 times! … 3B Mark Vientos leads the club with 36 HR. … 2B prospect Ronny Mauricio steals 20 bases post All-Star break. … New RHP Clay Holmes is a resounding success, leading the Mets with 170 IP, 13 wins and 153 K. … LHP Sean Manaea (oblique) heals quickly and throws 168 innings, albeit with a 4.10 ERA.

Philadelphia Phillies: SS Trea Turner leads off and hits .320 with 24 HR, 39 SB and 111 runs, finishing top five in NL MVP voting. … DH Kyle Schwarber, not hitting leadoff, knocks in a career-best 125 runs. … SS prospect Aidan Miller hits .300 and swats 20 HR between Double-A and Triple-A before becoming the team’s DH in September, with Schwarber in LF. … Four Phillies register 175 strikeouts, including LHPs Cristopher Sanchez and Jesus Luzardo. … Prospect RHP Andrew Painter makes 10 starts — just like Ohtani — with a 2.90 ERA.

Pittsburgh Pirates: Three Pirates surpass 20 home runs, including C Joey Bart, who adds 72 RBI. … 1B/2B Spencer Horwitz (wrist), upon returning to health in late-April, becomes a points league favorite with a .385 OBP. … RHP Jared Jones gives the Pirates a pair of top-20 fantasy SP to go along with RHP Paul Skenes. Jones whiffs 190 hitters over 175 IP.

San Diego Padres: OF Jackson Merrill continues his ascent to stardom, delivering a 30-100-25 season. … 1B/2B Luis Arraez fails to hit .300 for the first time since 2021 and his walk rate keeps dropping. … Three Padres RHPs finish among the top-25 fantasy starters. Yep, it is Nick Pivetta (3.75 ERA, 200 K) time, finally!

San Francisco Giants: Six Giants reach 20 home runs, including leadoff hitter LaMonte Wade Jr. (he has been close before) and SS Tyler Fitzgerald. OF Jung Hoo Lee does not, but he will outscore Luis Arraez in points formats. … RHP Justin Verlander makes 23 mostly solid starts between IL stints, winning 12 with a 3.30 ERA.

St. Louis Cardinals: SS Masyn Winn goes 20/20, scores 100 runs and leads the team in fantasy points. … Rookies Thomas Saggese and Victor Scott II become starters in June. Saggese hits 19 home runs, while Scott steals 38 bases. … 3B Nolan Arenado (mercifully) and RHP Ryan Helsley are traded to Seattle in July.

Washington Nationals: A bulked-up SS CJ Abrams hits 31 home runs and steals 32 bases, but with a sub-.300 OBP. … OF Dylan Crews leads the club with 45 SB. … LHP DJ Herz, inserted into the rotation in mid-April, posts a team-leading 3.60 ERA over 26 starts. … Presumptive closer RHP Kyle Finnegan posts a 5.00 ERA in April and loses the role to RHP Jorge Lopez.